Notes on methods and evidence
Short, practical pieces on how we research, measure and publish — and how to read the results with care.
- Security & Strategic Affairs
Assessing geopolitical risk without forecasting
Useful risk analysis rarely predicts events. A note on describing exposures and thresholds rather than betting on outcomes decision-makers cannot control.
· Dr Yusuf El-Amin
- Data & Indicators
Publishing data alongside the report
Why we release the underlying indicators with every study, how we license them, and what open data does and does not guarantee about a finding.
· Dr Clara Bönisch
- Research Independence
How our independence is protected
Independence is a set of procedures, not a slogan. A plain account of how funding is disclosed, how findings are protected from funders, and where the limits are.
· Dr Samuel Adeyemi
- Markets & Industry
What a market sizing can and cannot tell you
Market sizing answers a narrower question than it is often asked to. A note on the difference between a defensible estimate and a persuasive one.
· Priya Nadkarni
- Climate & Environment
Counting the cost of adaptation
Adaptation spending is hard to compare across countries. A note on the accounting choices that make the numbers diverge, and how we reconcile them.
· Dr Tomás Ruiz
- Health Systems
Health-system resilience: what the evidence supports
Resilience is widely cited and loosely defined. A note on the measurable features that distinguish systems that absorb shocks from those that merely recover.
· Dr Ingrid Halvorsen
- Technology & Society
Evaluating claims about artificial intelligence
How we assess vendor and policy claims about AI systems: separating measured capability from projection, and asking what evidence would settle the question.
· Marco Deforest
- Economics & Development
Reading labour-market data after a shock
Employment series can mislead in the months after a disruption. A note on the revisions, the base effects and the questions to ask before drawing a conclusion.
· Dr Anaya Rao
- Global Governance
Measuring state capacity across advanced and emerging economies
Notes from a comparative study on how administrative capability shapes the delivery of public decisions, and the difficulty of measuring it consistently.
· Kwame Osei
- Methodology
How we document methods in every report
A short guide to the methods appendix we attach to every publication, and why methodological transparency is a condition of publishing, not an afterthought.
· Dr Helena Marsh